Mabuku atatu abwino kwambiri a Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Tangoganizirani zolemba zachiwembu mabuku othandizira. Zingakhale ngati mndandanda wosatsimikizika wazomwe mungayankhe, monga: kuchokera pamutu wanu wokhotakhota mu zojambulazo za aluminiyamu, mpaka kukhazikitsa dimba laling'ono pansi panu kuti mudzipezere chakudya.

Funso lingakhale liti mwa zongopeka za wolemba wamisala wanthawiyo zomwe zitha kukhala zoona komanso zofunika. Chifukwa mu cabals amisala kupambana kwina kumapangidwa nthawi zonse.

Ndipo chinthu chake nchakuti Nassim Nicholas Taleb, wopusa kwambiri mopitilira misala, amatipatsa mabukuwa kuti timvetsetse zomwe sizikumveka koma zomwe zimachitika pamapeto pake. Zomwe sizingachitike zomwe zimawoneka kuti ndizovomerezeka ndi lamulo la Murphy ndipo zimatha kufotokozedwera mufilosofi yotchuka monga "zoyipa zimachitika"

Pamapeto pake, aliyense amene amayang'ana mu nzeru zamtsogolo kuseri kwa lattice, ngati osati mwachindunji trompe l'oeil, ali ndi chidwi chachikulu komanso kuwerenga kosangalatsa. Taleb ndi munthu uja yemwe wapita ndikubwerera, sindikudziwa kuti wafika kuti, koma mwachiwonekere adadutsa malo osayembekezereka.

Kotero ngati mukufuna kuwerenga chinachake chosiyana, pitirirani popanda kusungitsa. Sindikudziwa ngati zingakuthandizeni, koma ndikukutsimikizirani kuti muphunzira kutanthauzira zinsalu zakuda zomwe zatizinga, kaya mwamwayi womwe umapangitsa kuti mtsikana wokongola kwambiri akuzindikireni kapena kukhala bitch yosokoneza kwambiri. mukhoza kuganiza..

Mabuku Otchuka 3 Olembedwa ndi Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nyama yakuda. Mphamvu ya zomwe sizingachitike

Kuti coronavirus idakhala tsekwe lakuda lotchedwa Covid-19, kwa ine (osati kwa Taleb mwiniwake), mosakayikira. Chifukwa kachilombo koyambitsa matendawa, kapena mawonekedwe ake oyambilira, akhalapo kwazaka zambiri. Koma amayenera kukhala tsopano kuti atikhumudwitse ndikudzimva kuti ndife olakwa chifukwa cha kudalirana kwa mayiko, komwe kudakulirakulira, koma palibe amene akudziwa ngati ndi chifukwa choyambitsa kusinthaku.

Gwiritsani ntchito njirayi kuti mulowe m'buku la masamu lopangidwa ndi fizikiki, zomwe zingachitike kuti zichitike. Pamwambowu timawona, makamaka mbali yabwino ya swans yakuda idapanga mamiliyoni ambirimbiri mwamwayi. Koma kumbukirani kuti zodabwitsa zilizonse zitha kupha mwanjira yake. Kupambana kwa Google ndi You Tube, mpaka 11/XNUMX, ndi "swans zakuda." Kwa Nassim Nicholas Taleb, ma swans akuda ndi gawo lofunikira mdziko lathu lapansi, kuyambira pakukwera kwa zipembedzo mpaka zochitika pamoyo wathu.

Chifukwa chiyani sitingathe kuzindikira chodabwitsa ichi mpaka zitachitika kale? Malinga ndi wolemba, izi zili choncho chifukwa anthu amaumirira kufufuza zinthu zomwe tikuzidziwa kale, kuiwala zomwe sitikuzidziwa. Izi zimatilepheretsa kuzindikira mwayi ndipo zimatipangitsa kukhala pachiwopsezo chofuna kufewetsa, kufotokoza ndi kugawa, kuyiwala kupereka mphotho kwa omwe akudziwa momwe angaganizire "zosatheka."

Zokongola, zodabwitsa komanso zowoneka bwino zapadziko lonse lapansi, Nyama yakuda zidzasintha momwe timaonera dziko lapansi. Taleb ndi wolemba wosangalatsa, wanzeru, komanso wopanda ulemu yemwe amamvetsetsa bwino zinthu zomwe zimasiyanitsidwa ndi sayansi yazamalonda, bizinesi, komanso lingaliro lazotheka. Pamenepo, Nyama yakuda ndi tsekwe weniweni wakuda palokha.

Zosasunthika. Zinthu zomwe zimapindula ndi kuwundana

Zomwe Marie Kondo angakhale onyadira ndi mutuwu womwe wanena kapena malingaliro ake. Pambuyo pa swan wakuda, apa pakubwera gawo lophunzitsira la nkhaniyi, kuyesa kukhazikitsa loti ngati masewera pomwe aliyense amene angathe kuyika dayisi kwambiri adzakhala ndi mwayi wopanga seweroli. Angadziwe ndani? Kupatula apo komanso pankhani yakudzithandiza, kuphunzitsa, komanso luntha lamalingaliro, zitha kungokhala kungoyendetsa dayisi.

En Nyama yakuda, Taleb adadzetsa vuto (la zovuta zoyambitsidwa ndi zinthu zomwe palibe amene angawonere ...) ndi Zosasunthika Imatipatsa yankho lokhazikika: momwe tingapindulire ndi chisokonezo, pomwe tikudziteteza ku zovuta ndi zovuta. Zomwe Taleb amadzitcha "anti-brittle" zimangodutsa kulimba, kupindula ndi zadzidzidzi, kusatsimikizika, komanso kupsinjika, monganso mafupa amunthu amalimba akamapanikizika kapena kupsinjika. "Wotsutsa-osalimba" ayenera kutero Kuunjikana kuti upulumuke ndikukula. Taleb amayang'ana kwambiri kusatsimikizika ngati chinthu chofunikira, ngakhale chofunikira, ndikupangira kuti zinthu zizimangidwa m'njira yotsutsana ndi zosalimba. Odana ndi osalimba satetezedwa ndi zolosera zamtsogolo.

 Wotchuka kwambiri komanso wophunzitsira osiyanasiyana, umatipatsa pulogalamu yamomwe tingakhalire - ndi kutukuka - m'dziko lomwe sitimvetsetsa, zomwe sizikudziwika kuti tingayese kuzimvetsetsa. Uthenga wa Taleb, wolembedwa komanso waluso, ndikusintha: Zomwe siziri zosalimba zidzawonongeka.

Sewerani khungu lanu. Ma asymmetri obisika m'moyo watsiku ndi tsiku

Kuganiza kuchokera ku masamu kumatha kumveka kozizira, kutali ndi zenizeni, aseptic, popanda kuthekera kosunga malingaliro. Koma masamu amatsogolera m’nzeru zopangapanga, monga ngati ndi nambala ya pi chabe yotalikirapo kukwaniritsa ukulu wa malingaliro amene kaŵirikaŵiri timawombana nawo m’zoyesayesa zopanda pake ndi zotsutsana.

Zachabechabe kapena ayi, monyengerera, zofotokozera za Taleb zimatengera kutsutsidwa komweko komwe aliyense wa ife amayamba kudzipatula ku lingaliro limodzi kapena lina ndi zobisika zake zanthawi zonse. Pokhapokha pamapeto pake, Taleb nthawi zina amadzipatula kudziko lokhazikika lotizungulira ndikulolera kutengeka ndi masamu omwe alipo, yekhayo amene amadziwa maziko a zonsezi. kumvetsetsa dziko, kuchita bwino pantchito, kuthandizira pagulu lachilungamo komanso lofanana, kuzindikira zopanda pake ndikukopa ena.

Potchula zitsanzo kuyambira ku Hammurabi mpaka ku Seneca, kapena kuchokera ku chimphona cha Anteus kupita kwa a Donald Trump, Taleb akuwonetsa momwe kufunitsitsa kuvomereza zoopsa zake ndikofunikira kwa ngwazi, oyera mtima, komanso otukuka m'magulu onse azikhalidwe. Chovuta kuzikhulupiriro zakale zamakhalidwe a omwe amatsogolera kulowererapo kunkhondo, kupanga ndalama ndikufalitsa zikhulupiriro zachipembedzo.