Mathematics and Gambling, lolembedwa ndi John Haigh

Masamu komanso, makamaka, ziwerengero, ndi zinthu ziwiri zomwe zakhala zikumapweteka mutu kwambiri kwa ophunzira nthawi zonse, koma ndizofunikira pakupanga zisankho. Munthu sakhala mtundu winawake wopatsidwa mwayi wopenda zidziwitso zambiri, chifukwa chake kuyang'anira izi kuchokera ku intuition nthawi zambiri kumatitsogolera pakupanga zisankho zolakwika mtsogolo. Pali mabuku ambiri ophunzitsira omwe amafotokoza za nkhaniyi, koma lero tikufuna kuwunikira, chifukwa chophweka komanso chifuniro chake, mwina ntchito yakale ya John haigh, Masamu ndi njuga. Kuyambira ndi mafunso osavuta okhudza zochitika ndi masewera omwe onse adziwa, tikhala ndi mfundo zomwe zimayendetsa njira zolondola kuchokera m'manja mwa m'modzi mwa mamembala odziwika a Royal Statistical Society.

Kodi zifukwa zomwe zimapangitsa kuti wosewera yemwe amatenga makadi m'mabwalo a lalanje omwe amakhala pa board nthawi zambiri amakhala wopambana pamasewerawa? Kodi tili ndi zina zambiri kuti tilandire mphotho mu dziwe kapena lotale? Mwanjira yopezeka, Haigh amatipatsa mayankho pogwiritsa ntchito masamu omwe pang'onopang'ono amapita patsogolo movutikira, ndi njira yophunzirira yopezeka komanso osasiya nthabwala. Chifukwa chake, m'masamba ake onse a 393 tidzakambirana nkhani kuyambira pa stochastics yakale mpaka nthano yamasewera.

Kusintha kuchokera kumalo ochitira masewera a maso ndi maso kupita ku ntchito zapaintaneti kunali kusintha pankhani yodziwika bwino masamu omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito pamasewera amwayi, ndipo omwe akufunafuna zambiri kuti apititse patsogolo zotsatira zawo pamasewera a kasino kapena kubetcha nawonso apeza mitu yosangalatsa kwambiri kwa inu. zokonda. Kodi ndizosavuta kuwongolera ngati timabetcha pa mpira kapena tikasankha gofu? Kodi pali "njira zopanda pake" zopambana pa roulette? Kodi chinyengo cha "Martingale" ndi chiyani? Ndi kubetcha kwamtundu wanji komwe kuli koyenera pankhani yopanga ma bonasi osungitsa phindu? Kodi pali ubale wotani pakati pa zovuta zomwe zimaperekedwa ndi kuwunika kwachiwopsezo kwa zotsatira zina pamasewera? Haigh amatiwululira maziko a masamu omwe amathandizira mayankho a mafunso onsewa momveka bwino komanso momveka bwino, koma kupewa njira zamatsenga zopezera chuma chomwe chimachuluka kwambiri pa intaneti.

Masamu ndi njuga Ndilo buku lomwe limagwira ntchito katatu: kudziwitsa, kuphunzitsa komanso kusangalatsa. Chaputala chilichonse chimaphatikizapo zolimbitsa thupi zazing'ono kuti owerenga chidwi kwambiri athe kuwunika kumvetsetsa kwamalingaliro, kuyesa zomwe aphunzira kumene ndikuyesa kudabwitsidwa ndi malingaliro olakwika omwe amapezeka pafupipafupi. Ndipo ndikuti kuphunzira pang'ono pankhaniyi kumatha kutitsogolera kuzonena zonga zomwezo zodabwitsa zimafotokozedwa Bernard Shaw: "Ngati mnzanga ali ndi magalimoto awiri ndipo ndilibe, ziwerengerozi zimatiuza kuti tonse tili ndi imodzi".