Izincwadi ezi-3 ezihamba phambili zikaNassim Nicholas Taleb

Ake sicabange ngokubhala uzungu izincwadi zokuzisiza. Kungaba into efana nohlu olungapheli lwezincomo oluzohlanganisa, okungukuthi: kusukela ekhanda lakho elijikisiwe ku-aluminium foil, kuya ekufakweni kwensimu encane phansi ukuze uzinikeze ukudla.

Umbuzo ungaba ukuthi yimiphi imibono yombhali ohlanya wangaleso sikhathi engagcina iyiqiniso futhi iyadingeka. Ngoba emacabheni ohlanya enye impumelelo ihlale ikhiqizwa.

Futhi into ukuthi UNassim Nicholas Taleb, ecace ngokwedlulele kunohlanya, usinikeza lezo zincwadi zokuzisiza ukuze siqonde izinto ezingaqondakali kodwa okwenzeka ekugcineni. Lezo zinto ezingabonakali zibonakala ziphawulwe ngumthetho ka-Murphy futhi ezigcina zikhonjwe kwifilosofi ethandwayo njengokuthi "kuyenzeka"

Ekugcineni, wonke umuntu olunguza ekuhlakanipheni kwakamuva ngemuva kwe-lattice, uma kungenjalo ngokuqondile i-trompe l'oeil, unesithakazelo esikhulu nokufunda okwanelisayo. UTaleb yilowo mfana ohambile wabuya, angazi ukuthi ufinyelele kuphi, kodwa kusobala ukuthi weqe imibundu engalindelekile.

Ngakho uma ufuna ukufunda okuthile okuhlukile, qhubeka ngaphandle kokubhukha. Angazi noma kuzokusiza yini, kodwa ngiyakuqinisekisa ukuthi uzofunda ukuchaza amadada amnyama asizungezile, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kuyindlela yaleyo nhlanhla engenakwenzeka eyenza intombazane enhle kakhulu ikuqaphele noma ibe inyoni ephazamisa kakhulu. ungacabanga..

Izincwadi Eziphezulu Ezi-3 Ezinconyiwe ngu-Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Idada elimnyama. Umthelela wezinto ezingenakwenzeka kakhulu

Ukuthi i-coronavirus yaba idada elimnyama elibizwa nge-Covid-19, kimi (hhayi kangako kuTaleb uqobo), ngokungangabazeki. Ngoba leli gciwane okukhulunywa ngalo, noma okungenani isimo salo sokuqala, selineminyaka likhona. Kodwa bekufanele kube manje ukusigxeka ngomuzwa wecala lokuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke, okwakwenza kwathuthukiswa, kodwa akekho owaziyo ukuthi kuyimbangela yokukhukhuleka okubi kangaka kokuziphendukela kwemvelo.

Khonza le ndlela ukuze ufake incwadi yezibalo ezenziwe ngefiziksi, okungenzeka ukuthi kwenzeke. Lesi sikhathi sibona, ngokuyisisekelo ohlangothini ezinhle amadada black wenza euromillions amathuba. Kodwa khumbula ukuthi yonke into eyinqaba ingaba yingozi kakhulu engqikithini yako. Impumelelo ye-Google ne-You Tube, kuze kube umhla ka-11/XNUMX, "ingamadada amnyama." Ku-Nassim Nicholas Taleb, ama-swans amnyama ayingxenye ebalulekile yomhlaba wethu, kusukela ekukhuleni kwezinkolo kuya ezenzakalweni zokuphila kwethu siqu.

Kungani singakwazi ukuhlonza lesi sigameko kuze kube sekwenzekile? Ngokusho kombhali, lokhu kungenxa yokuthi abantu bayaphikelela ekuphenyeni izinto esizaziyo, bakhohlwe esingakwazi. Lokhu kusivimbela ekuboneni amathuba futhi kusenza sibe sengozini enkulu yokufuna ukwenza lula, ukulandisa nokuhlukanisa, sikhohlwe ukuklomelisa labo abakwaziyo ukucabanga “okungenakwenzeka.”

Inhle, iyamangaza, futhi ikhombisa ubungako bendawo yonke, Idada elimnyama izoguqula indlela yethu yokubuka umhlaba. U-Taleb ungumbhali othokozisayo, onamasu, futhi ongenanhlonipho onokuqonda okujulile izifundo ezihlukene njengesayensi yengqondo, umhlaba webhizinisi, kanye nethiyori yamathuba. Empeleni, Idada elimnyama iyidada langempela elimnyama ngokwalo.

I-Antifragile. Izinto ezizuzisayo ngemfuhlumfuhlu

Impela Marie Kondo angaziqhenya ngalesi sihloko esenziwe isitatimende noma isisekelo semibono yakhe. Ngemuva kwe-black swan, nansi ingxenye yokuqeqesha yendaba, umzamo wokugxila kulowo mdlalo welotho njengomdlalo lapho noma ubani ongakwazi ukugingqa amadayisi amaningi ezoba nethuba elingcono lokwenza umdlalo wenzeke. Kwazi bani? Ngemuva kwakho konke futhi okuningi uma kuziwa ekuzisizeni, ekuqeqesheni, nasekuhlakanipheni kwemizwa, kungase kube nje ukugoqa idayisi.

En Idada elimnyama, U-Taleb uphakamise inkinga (leyo yemiphumela ebangelwa izinto okungekho muntu ongazibona ...) futhi I-Antifragile isinika isisombululo esiqondile: indlela yokwenza inzuzo ekuhlakazekeni nasezinxushunxushwini, kuyilapho sizivikela ebuthakathakeni nasezehlakalweni ezimbi. Lokho uTaleb akubiza ngokuthi “i-anti-brittle” kudlulela ngalé kokuqina, ukuzuza ekushaqekeni, ekungaqiniseki, nasekucindezelekeni, njengoba nje namathambo abantu eba namandla lapho engaphansi kokucindezeleka nokucindezeleka. I-"anti-fragile" idinga uku imfuhlumfuhlu ukuze uphile futhi uchume. I-Taleb igxile ekungaqinisekini njengento efiselekayo, edingekayo, futhi iphakamisa ukuthi izinto zakhiwe ngendlela emelene nobuthaka. I-Anti-fragile ivikelekile emaphutheni okubikezela.

 Ifuna ukuvelela ngokwedlulele futhi inemikhakha eminingi, isinika uhlelo lokuthi kufanele siziphathe kanjani - futhi siphumelele - emhlabeni esingawuqondi, futhi lokho okungaqinisekile ukuthi singazama ukukuqonda nokubikezela. Umlayezo kaTaleb, obhaliwe futhi okhaliphile, unoguquko: Okungamelene nobuthaka ngokuqinisekile kuzoshabalala.

Dlala isikhumba sakho. Ama-asymmetries afihliwe ekuphileni kwansuku zonke

Ukucabanga ngezibalo kungazwakala kubanda, kude neqiniso, i-aseptic, ngaphandle kokuba nokwenzeka kokufukamela imizwa. Kodwa izibalo zihamba phambili ngobuhlakani bokwenziwa, njengokungathi kuyinombolo ka-pi kuphela ekufinyeleleni ubukhosi bemibono esivame ukungqubuzana nayo ngokuyize nokuphikisana.

Kuyize noma cha, ngokuzenzisa, izincazelo zikaTaleb zisekelwe ekugxekeni okufanayo lapho noma ubani wethu eqala ukuziqhelelanisa nomcabango othile noma omunye ngokuzifihla okujwayelekile kwe-axiomatic. Ekugcineni uTaleb ngezinye izikhathi uyaziqhelelanisa nalowo mhlaba ocabangelayo owakhiwe esizungezile futhi azivumele ukuba athathwe yileyo mathematics ekhona, okuwukuphela kwayo owazi umnyombo wakho konke lokhu.Kwenye yezincwadi zakhe ezivusa inkanuko uTaleb uchaza kabusha ukuthi kusho ukuthini. ukuqonda umhlaba, ukuphumelela emsebenzini othile, ukufaka isandla emphakathini onobulungiswa nolinganayo, ukubona ubuwula futhi kuthonye abanye.

Ecaphuna izibonelo kusukela ku-Hammurabi kuya ku-Seneca, noma kusukela ku-Anteus omkhulu kuya ku-Donald Trump, u-Taleb ubonisa ukuthi ukuzimisela komuntu ukwamukela izingozi kuyimfanelo ebalulekile yamaqhawe, osanta, nabantu abaphumelelayo kuyo yonke imikhakha yomphakathi. Inselele ezinkolelweni zakudala mayelana namagugu alabo abahola ukungenelela kwezempi, ukutshala izimali kanye nokusabalalisa izinkolelo zenkolo.