IMathematics and Gambling, kaJohn Haigh

IMathematics kanye, ikakhulukazi, izibalo, kube yizifundo ezimbili ezidale ukuqaqanjelwa yikhanda kwabafundi ngazo zonke izikhathi, kepha kuyizindlela eziyisisekelo ekuthathweni kwezinqumo. Umuntu akayona inhlobo enesiphiwo esikhethekile sokuhlaziywa kwemininingwane emikhulu, ngakho-ke ukuphatha lokhu kusuka kumuzwa kuvame ukusiholela ekuthatheni izinqumo ezingalungile esikhathini esizayo. Kunezincwadi eziningi ezifundisayo ezikhuluma ngale ndaba, kepha namhlanje sifuna ukugqamisa, ngokulula kwayo nangentando yayo, mhlawumbe umsebenzi wasendulo UJohn haighIzibalo nokugembula. Ukuqala ngemibuzo elula ngezimo nemidlalo eyaziwa yibo bonke, sizofaka ngaphakathi izimiso eziyisisekelo ezilawula amasu afanele kusuka esandleni selinye lamalungu aziwa kakhulu eRoyal Statistical Society.

Yiziphi izizathu ezenza ukuthi umdlali othatha amakhadi ezigcawini ze-orange ebhodini imvamisa abe ngumnqobi womdlalo? Ngabe sinezinketho eziningi zokuthola umklomelo echibini noma kwilotho? Ngendlela efinyelelekayo, uHaigh usinikeza izimpendulo esebenzisa intuthuko yezibalo eqhubeka kancane kancane ngobunzima, ngejika lokufunda elifinyelelekayo futhi ngaphandle kokunikeza umuzwa wokuhlekisa. Ngakho-ke, kuwo wonke amakhasi alo angama-393 sizobhekana nezihloko ezisukela kuma-classical stochastics kuya kumdlalo wethiyori.

Ukusuka ezindaweni zokugembula ubuso nobuso kuya ezinsizakalweni ze-inthanethi kwakuyinguquko ekuphakamiseni izibalo ezisetshenziswa emidlalweni yenhlanhla, futhi labo abafuna imininingwane yokwenza ngcono imiphumela yabo kumageyimu wekhasino noma ekubhejeni nabo bazothola izahluko ezithakazelisa kakhulu izintshisekelo zakho. Ngabe kulula ukuyithola kahle uma sibheja ebholeni likanobhutshuzwayo noma uma sikhetha igalofu? Zikhona yini "izindlela zokuqiniseka ngomlilo" zokuwina ku-roulette? Yini iqhinga le "Martingale"? Hlobo luni lokubheja olufanele uma kukhulunywa ngokwenza ifayili le- awekho amabhonasi ediphozi? Buyini ubudlelwano phakathi kwamathuba ahlinzekiwe nokuhlolwa kobungozi komphumela othile kumdlalo? UHaigh wembula izisekelo zezibalo ezisekela izimpendulo zayo yonke le mibuzo ngendlela ecacile nefundisayo, kepha ebalekela amafomula omlingo wokuqongelela imali eningi kakhulu kuwebhu.

Izibalo nokugembula Luhlobo lwencwadi olusebenzela izinhloso ezintathu: ukwazisa, ukufundisa nokujabulisa. Isahluko ngasinye sifaka ukuzivocavoca okuncane ukuze umfundi onelukuluku lokwedlulele ahlole ukuqondwa kwemiqondo, abeke ulwazi lwabo asanda kuluthola esivivinyweni futhi amangazwe yimibono eyiphutha ejwayelekile. Futhi ukuthi ukuqeqeshwa okuncane kulolu daba kungasiholela ezitatimendeni ezifana naleyo kuchazwe ngendlela exakile UBernard Shaw: "Uma umakhelwane wami enezimoto ezimbili mina ngingenazo, izibalo zisitshela ukuthi sobabili sinemoto eyodwa".

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