Ezona ncwadi zi-3 zigqwesileyo nguNassim Nicholas Taleb

Yiba nomfanekiso-ngqondweni wokubhalwa kweyelenqe iincwadi zokuncedisa. Kuya kuba yinto efana noluhlu olungapheliyo lweengcebiso eziza kugubungela, ezizezi: ukusuka entloko yakho ephothiweyo kwi-aluminium foil, ukufakwa kwe-micro-garden kumgangatho wakho ukuze uzibonelele ngokutya.

Umbuzo unokuba zeziphi iingcamango zombhali ophambeneyo welo xesha ezinokuthi ekugqibeleni zinyaniseke kwaye ziyimfuneko. Kaloku kwimpambano zegeza enye impumelelo isoloko igqibele ngokuveliswa.

Kwaye into yileyo UNassim Nicholas Taleb, ecace ngakumbi kunokuphambana, usinika ezo ncwadi zokuzinceda ukuze siqonde izinto ezingaqondakaliyo kodwa kwenzeka ntoni ekugqibeleni. Ezo zinto zingabonakaliyo ezibonakala ziphawulwe ngumthetho ka-Murphy kwaye ziphela zichazwe kwifilosofi eyaziwayo njengoko "kusenzeka i-shit"

Ekugqibeleni, wonke umntu ojonga kubulumko bamva emva kwe-lattice, ukuba akunjalo ngokuthe ngqo i-trompe l'oeil, unomdla omkhulu kunye nokufunda okwanelisayo. UTaleb ngulaa mfo uhambile wabuya, andazi ukuba ufikelele phi, kodwa kucaca ukuba uwele imibundu engacingelwanga.

Ke ukuba ufuna ukufunda into eyahlukileyo, qhubeka ngaphandle kokubekisa. Andazi ukuba kuya kukunceda na, kodwa ndiyakuqinisekisa ukuba uya kufunda ukucazulula amadada amnyama asingqongileyo, nokuba kuluhlobo lwethamsanqa elingenakwenzeka elenza eyona ntombazana intle ikuphawule okanye ibe yeyona bitch ididayo. ungacinga..

Iincwadi ezi-3 eziPhakamileyo eziCetyisiweyo nguNassim Nicholas Taleb

Idada elimnyama. Impembelelo yento engenakwenzeka kakhulu

Ukuba i-coronavirus yaba lidada elimnyama elibizwa ngokuba yi-Covid-19, kum (hayi kakhulu kuTaleb ngokwakhe), ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo. Kungenxa yokuba le ntsholongwane kuthethwa ngayo, okanye ubunjani bayo bokuqala, ibikho kangangeenkulungwane. Kodwa bekufuneka ngoku ukuba isigxeke ngokuziva sinetyala lokurhweba kwehlabathi, nto leyo eyaye yaphucula, kodwa akukho mntu waziyo ukuba ngunobangela wolu hlobo lokuziphendukela kwemvelo.

NONE Ngesi sihlandlo siqwalasela, ngokusisiseko icala elihle lamadada amnyama lenze i-euromillions yamathuba. Kodwa khumbula ukuba yonke into engaqhelekanga inokubulala ngokugqibeleleyo kwisiseko sayo.Impumelelo yeGoogle kunye neYou Tube, kwaye kude kube yi-11/XNUMX, "ngamadada amnyama." KuNassim Nicholas Taleb, amadada amnyama ayinxalenye ebalulekileyo yehlabathi lethu, ukusuka ekukhuleni kweenkolo ukuya kwiziganeko zobomi bethu.

Kutheni le nto singayichongi le nto de ibe sele yenzekile? Ngokutsho kombhali, oku kungenxa yokuba abantu banyanzelisa ukuphanda izinto esele sizazi, belibala into esingayaziyo. Oku kusithintela ekuqondeni amathuba kwaye kusenza sibe sesichengeni kakhulu kwimpembelelo yokwenza lula, ukubalisa kunye nokwahlulahlula, silibale ukuvuza abo baziyo ukucinga "okungenakwenzeka."

Intle, iyamangalisa, kunye nembonakalo yobubanzi behlabathi, Inkumba emnyama iya kuguqula indlela yethu yokujonga ihlabathi. UTaleb ngumbhali owonwabisayo, onesiphiwo, nongenambeko nonokuqonda okunzulu ngezifundo ezingafaniyo njengenzululwazi yengqondo, ilizwe leshishini, kunye nethiyori enokwenzeka. Inyaniso, Inkumba emnyama lidada lokwenene elimnyama ngokwalo.

Inkumba emnyama

Antifragile. Izinto ezixhamlayo kwi-clutter

Eyona kakhulu Marie Kondo angazingca ngesi sihloko senze ingxelo okanye isiseko seethiyori zakhe. Emva kwe-swan emnyama, nantsi icandelo lokuqeqesha lo mbandela, umzamo wokugxila kwilotho yobukho njengomdlalo apho nabani na onokuqengqa amadayisi amaninzi uya kuba nethuba elingcono lokwenza umdlalo wenzeke. Ngubani owaziyo? Emva kwayo yonke loo nto kwaye kakhulu xa kuziwa ekuzincedeni, ukuqeqesha, kunye nobukrelekrele beemvakalelo, inokuba malunga nokuqengqeleka idayisi.

En Idada elimnyama, UTaleb uphakamise ingxaki (leyo yeempembelelo ezibangelwa zizinto ekungekho mntu unokuzibona kwangaphambili ...) kwaye Antifragile isinika isisombululo esiqinisekileyo: indlela yokwenza inzuzo kwisiphithiphithi kunye nesiphithiphithi, ngelixa sizikhusela kubuthathaka kunye neziganeko ezimbi. Into uTaleb ayibiza ngokuba "yi-anti-brittle" idlulela ngaphaya kokuqina, ukuxhamla kwizinto ezothusayo, ukungaqiniseki kunye noxinzelelo, kanye njengokuba amathambo abantu esomelela xa ephantsi koxinzelelo kunye noxinzelelo. I "anti-fragile" kufuneka i-clutter ukuze uphile kwaye uchume. I-Taleb igxininisa ukungaqiniseki njengento enqwenelekayo, eyimfuneko, kwaye iphakamisa ukuba izinto zakhiwe ngendlela echasene ne-ethe-ethe. I-anti-fragile ikhuselekile kwiimpazamo zokuqikelela.

 Inamabhongo ngokugqithisileyo kunye neenkqubo ezininzi, isinika inkqubo yokuziphatha - kwaye siphumelele - kwihlabathi esingaliqondiyo, kwaye elingaqinisekanga kakhulu ukuba sizame ukuqonda nokuqikelela. Umyalezo kaTaleb, oshicilelweyo kwaye unobuchule, uguqukile: Into engachasani nobuthathaka ngokuqinisekileyo iya kutshabalala.

I-Antifragile: Izinto ezixhamla kwi-clutter

Dlala ulusu lwakho. Ii-asymmetries ezifihliweyo kubomi bemihla ngemihla

Ukucinga ngemathematika kunokuvakala kubanda, kude nenyani, i-aseptic, ngaphandle kokuba nokwenzeka kokugcina iimvakalelo. Kodwa imathematika ikhokela indlela ngobukrelekrele bokwenziwa, ngokungathi linani nje elikude lee ekuphumezeni ukongama kweengcinga esidla ngokungqubana nazo ngokulilize kunye nokuphikisana.

Ilize okanye hayi, ngokuzenzisa, ngokuqinisekileyo, iinkcazo zikaTaleb zisekwe kwisigxeko esifanayo apho nabani na kuthi aqala ukuzihlukanisa nengcinga enye okanye enye ngokuzifihla okuqhelekileyo kwe-axiomatic. Kuphela ekugqibeleni uTaleb ngamanye amaxesha uyaziqhelanisa nehlabathi elinobuntu elijikelezileyo kwaye azivumele ukuba athabatheke yimathematika ekhoyo, inguye yedwa owazi undoqo wayo yonke le nto.Kweyona ncwadi yakhe ixhokonxayo, uTaleb uyichaza ngokutsha ukuba ithetha ukuthini na. ukuqonda ihlabathi, ukuphumelela kumsebenzi, ukufaka isandla kuluntu olunobulungisa nolunobulungisa, ukufumanisa ukungabi nangqiqo kunye nefuthe kwabanye.

Ecaphula imizekelo esusela kuHammurabi ukuya eSeneca, okanye ukusuka kwingxilimbela uAnteus ukuya kuDonald Trump, uTaleb ubonisa indlela ukukulungela ukwamkela ubungozi bomntu kuluphawu olubalulekileyo lwamaqhawe, abangcwele, nabantu abaphumelelayo kuzo zonke iinkalo zoluntu. Umceli mngeni kwiinkolelo zakudala malunga nexabiso labo bakhokela ukungenelela emkhosini, ukwenza utyalo-mali lwezemali kunye nokusasaza iinkolelo zonqulo.

Dlala ulusu lwakho. Ii-asymmetries ezifihliweyo kubomi bemihla ngemihla

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