ʻO nā puke maikaʻi loa 3 na Nassim Nicholas Taleb

E noʻonoʻo i kahi kākau kipi nā puke kōkua kōkua. He mea like ia me ka papa inoa pau ʻole o nā ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo e uhi ai, ʻo ia hoʻi: mai kou poʻo wili i ka pepa alumini, a i ke kau ʻana o kahi māla micro i kāu papahele e hoʻolako pono i ka meaʻai.

ʻO ka nīnau, ʻo wai ka manaʻo o ka mea kākau pupule o ia lā e ʻoiaʻiʻo a pono. No ka mea, i loko o nā kaʻa o ka pupule e hoʻopau mau ʻia kekahi kūleʻa.

A ʻo ka mea kēlā ʻO Nassim Nicholas Taleb, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o ka pupule, hāʻawi ʻo ia iā mākou i kēlā mau puke kōkua ponoʻī e hoʻomaopopo i ka mea ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻomaopopo akā he aha ka hopena. ʻO kēlā mau imponderables i ʻike ʻia e ke kānāwai a Murphy a ke kuhikuhi ʻia nei i ke akeakamai kaulana e like me ka "shit hanana"

I ka hopena, ʻo ka poʻe a pau e nānā i ka naʻauao ma hope ma hope o ka lattice, inā ʻaʻole pololei trompe lʻoeil, ʻoi aku ka hoihoi a ʻoi aku ka hauʻoli o ka heluhelu. ʻO Taleb kēlā kanaka i hele a hoʻi mai, ʻaʻole maopopo iaʻu i ka hiki ʻana i hea, akā ua ʻike ʻia ua hala i nā paepae ʻike ʻole ʻia.

No laila, inā makemake ʻoe e heluhelu i kekahi mea ʻokoʻa, e hele i mua me ke kau ʻole. ʻAʻole maopopo iaʻu inā he kōkua ia iā ʻoe, akā ke hōʻoiaʻiʻo nei au iā ʻoe e aʻo ʻoe i ka wehewehe ʻana i nā swans ʻeleʻele e hoʻopuni nei iā mākou, inā ma ke ʻano o kēlā pōmaikaʻi hiki ʻole ke hoʻomaopopo ʻia e ke kaikamahine nani loa iā ʻoe a i ʻole ka lilo ʻana i mea hoʻohilahila loa. hiki iā ʻoe ke noʻonoʻo.

ʻO nā puke kiʻekiʻe e 3 a Nassim Nicholas Taleb i ʻōlelo ʻia

Pua ʻeleʻele. Ka hopena o ka improbable hiki

Ua lilo ka coronavirus i kahi swan ʻeleʻele i kapa ʻia ʻo Covid-19, noʻu (ʻaʻole no Taleb iā ia iho), kanalua ʻole. No ka mea ʻo ka virus i nīnau ʻia, a i ʻole ma kona ʻano kumu, ua hala he mau kenekulia. Akā pono ia i kēia manawa e hōʻino iā mākou me ka manaʻo o ka hewa no ka globalization, kahi i hoʻonui ai, akā ʻaʻohe mea nāna e ʻike inā ʻo ia ke kumu o ka ʻauheʻe evolutionary hewa.

E lawelawe i kēia ala e hoʻokomo i kahi puke o ka makemakika i hana i ka physics, o nā probencies e kū i ke ʻano. I kēia hanana ʻike mākou, ke ʻaoʻao maikaʻi o nā swans ʻeleʻele i hana i nā euromillions o ka manawa kūpono. Akā e hoʻomanaʻo i kēlā me kēia ʻano ʻino hiki ke make pono i kāna kumu. ʻO ka kūleʻa o Google a me You Tube, a hiki i ka 11/XNUMX, he "swan ʻeleʻele." No Nassim Nicholas Taleb, ʻo nā swans ʻeleʻele kekahi mea nui o ko mākou honua, mai ka piʻi ʻana o nā hoʻomana i nā hanana o ko mākou ola pilikino.

No ke aha ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke ʻike i kēia ʻano a hiki i ka wā i hana ʻia ai? Wahi a ka mea kākau, no ka hoʻomau ʻana o ke kanaka i ka noiʻi ʻana i nā mea a kākou i ʻike mua ai, me ka poina i ka mea a kākou i ʻike ʻole ai. Mālama kēia iā mākou mai ka ʻike ʻana i nā manawa kūpono a hoʻolilo iā mākou i mea palupalu i ka manaʻo e hoʻomaʻamaʻa, haʻi a hoʻokaʻawale, poina e uku i ka poʻe ʻike i ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ka "hiki ʻole."

ʻO ka nani, kahaha, a me nā noʻonoʻo o ke ao holoʻokoʻa, Pua ʻeleʻele e hoʻololi ia i kā mākou ala o ka nānā ʻana i ka honua. ʻO Taleb kahi mea kākau leʻaleʻa, kumuwaiwai, a me ka mahalo ʻole me ka ʻike hohonu i nā kumuhana like ʻole e like me ka ʻepekema ʻike, ka honua ʻoihana, a me ke kumumanaʻo probability. I ka 'oiaʻiʻo, Pua ʻeleʻele he swan ʻeleʻele maoli ia iā ia iho.

Antifragile. ʻO nā mea e pōmaikaʻi ai i ka huikau

ʻO ka loa ʻO Marie Kondo haʻaheo ʻo ia no kēia poʻo inoa i ʻōlelo ai a i ʻole kumu o kāna mau kumumanaʻo. Ma hope o ka swan ʻeleʻele, hiki mai ka ʻaoʻao aʻoaʻo o kēia mea, ʻo ka hoʻāʻo e kia i kēlā lotiri o ke ola ma ke ʻano he pāʻani kahi e hiki ai i ka mea hiki ke ʻōwili i ka nui o ka dice ke loaʻa kahi manawa ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi loa o ka pāʻani. ʻO wai ka mea ʻike? Ma hope o nā mea āpau a keu i ka wā e pili ana i ke kōkua ponoʻī, kaʻi, a me ka ʻike naʻau, e pili ana paha i ka ʻōwili ʻana i ka dice.

En ʻO ka swanʻeleʻele, Ua hāpai ʻo Taleb i kahi pilikia (ʻo ia nā hopena i hoʻokumu ʻia e nā mea i hiki ʻole i kekahi ke ʻike mua ...) a i loko Antifragile hāʻawi iā mākou i kahi hopena paʻa: pehea e loaʻa ai ka waiwai mai nā maʻi a me nā haunaele, ʻoiai e pale ana iā mākou iho i nā hanana palupalu a me nā hopena maikaʻi ʻole. ʻO ka mea a Taleb i kapa aku ai he "anti-brittle" ʻoi aku ma mua o ka ikaika, e pōmaikaʻi ana i nā haʻalulu, nā kānalua ʻole, a me ke koʻikoʻi, e like me ka ulu ʻana o nā iwi kanaka ke ikaika ma lalo o ke koʻikoʻi a me ke kanikau. ʻO ka "anti-fragile" pono e huehue e ola a mōhala. Kālele ʻo Taleb i ka maopopo ʻole ma ke ʻano he mea i makemake ʻia, ʻoiai e pono ai, a noi e kūkulu i nā mea i kahi ala anti-fragile. Kūpono ʻo Anti-fragile i nā hewa wānana.

 Nui a koʻikoʻi a multidisciplinary, hāʻawi ia iā mākou i kahi papahana pehea e hana ai - a pōmaikaʻi - i loko o kahi honua a mākou e maopopo ʻole ai, a he kānalua loa ia no mākou e hoʻāʻo e hoʻomaopopo a wānana. ʻO kā Taleb leka, kākau ʻia a akamai hoʻi, he kipi: ʻo ka mea anti-fragile e make ia.

Pāʻani i kou ʻili. Nā asymmetries i hūnā ʻia i ke ola o kēlā me kēia lā

ʻO ka noʻonoʻo ʻana mai ka makemakika hiki ke kani anuanu, mamao loa mai ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, aseptic, me ka ʻole o ka hiki ke mālama i nā manaʻo. Akā, ke alakaʻi nei ka makemakika i ke ala ma ka naʻauao hana, me he mea lā he helu pi wale nō ia mai ka loaʻa ʻana o ka mana o nā manaʻo a mākou e hui pū ai me nā hana lapuwale a me nā kūʻē.

He lapuwale a ʻaʻole paha, hoʻomākeʻaka, ʻo nā wehewehe ʻana a Taleb e pili ana i ka hoʻohewa like ʻana a kekahi o mākou e hoʻomaka ai e hoʻokaʻawale iā mākou iho mai kekahi manaʻo a i ʻole me kāna mau hoʻololi axiomatic maʻamau. ʻO ka hope wale nō, hoʻokaʻawale ʻo Taleb iā ia iho mai kēlā honua kumuhana i kūkulu ʻia a puni mākou a hoʻokuʻu iā ia iho e lawe ʻia e kēlā makemakika existentialist, ʻo ia wale nō ka mea i ʻike i ke kumu o kēia mau mea a pau. e hoʻomaopopo i ka honua , kūleʻa i kahi ʻoihana, hāʻawi i kahi kaiāulu kūpono a kaulike, ʻike i ka lapuwale a hoʻohuli i nā poʻe ʻē aʻe.

Ke kuhikuhi nei i nā laʻana mai Hammurabi a Seneca, a mai ka pilikua Anteus a Donald Trump, hōʻike ʻo Taleb pehea ka makemake e ʻae i nā mea kūpilikiʻi kahi ʻano nui o nā koa, nā haipule, a me nā kānaka holomua i nā ʻano āpau o ke kaiāulu. He ʻaʻa i nā manaʻoʻiʻo kahiko e pili ana i nā waiwai o ka poʻe alakaʻi i nā hana koa, hana i nā hoʻopukapuka kālā a hoʻolaha i nā manaʻo haipule.